This post at Disease Management Care Blog brings back memories of concerns raised by Dr. Robert Galvin at a recent MA Health Data Consortium seminar, about the complexity of implementing new payment regimes and also about the unintended consequences of market domination by accountable care organizations (ACOs). The author, Jaan Sidorov, summarizes a recent article by Richard Stefanacci, as follows:
Hospitals and physicians will continue to pursue merged arrangements
characterized by a) shared risk, b) less physician autonomy and c)
greater efficiency. Yet, it's still too easy for these first generation
ACOs to underestimate the downsides of risk contracting and it's even
easier for them to under-invest in care management programs. Add to this
the a) "dismal" track record of past physician-hospital collaborations,
b) disappointing Physician Group Practice Demo results and c)
disconnect between inferred savings and hard dollars, and there is every
reason to be skeptical about the ACOs' future.
Even worse, there's a government-generated health care bubble. The looming budget crisis will force Washington DC to retrench. Many large provider organizations and ACOs, caring for tens of thousands of patients with thousands of full-time employees, will be deemed "too big to fail." That "popping" noise will announced the start of a very destabilized market.
Even worse, there's a government-generated health care bubble. The looming budget crisis will force Washington DC to retrench. Many large provider organizations and ACOs, caring for tens of thousands of patients with thousands of full-time employees, will be deemed "too big to fail." That "popping" noise will announced the start of a very destabilized market.
Jaan then predicts in a manner that leaves me wondering whether he is optimistic or pessimistic:
Coming in the wake of all this underfunded wreckage will be second generation provider-led
accountable organizations. They’ll use the 2012-2014 time period to
build a patient-centered culture, learn about insurance risk, invest in
care management and prepare for the lean times ahead. They will focus on
a) the 20% of patients who are responsible for 80% of the costs, and b)
understand bundled payment arrangements. That’s when having strong
physician leadership, fully aligned care management-medical homes and
enterprise-wide medical decision support will mean the difference
between merely surviving and thriving.
A friend, who defines himself as a closet radical said, upon reading all of this, "Throw all the balls in the air and something good might happen, but it will be messy." That's one word.